Iran in Turmoil: Supreme Leader’s Secret Escape

Group of women in black attire marching with an Iranian flag

A new contingency plan from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei signals potential chaos as he prepares to flee to Moscow.

Story Highlights

Ayatollah Khamenei plans to escape to Moscow if unrest in Iran escalates.
The plan involves securing $95 billion in assets and fewer than 24 aides.
Protests in Iran are intensifying amid economic hardships.
The regime’s fragility is exposed, echoing Syria’s past turmoil.

Khamenei’s Contingency Plan

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly developed a contingency “Plan B” to flee Tehran for Moscow should nationwide protests become unmanageable. This plan involves fewer than 24 trusted aides, including his son, Mojtaba Khamenei. The plan follows a pattern seen in Bashar al-Assad’s 2024 escape from Syria to Russia, highlighting a precarious situation for Iran’s regime.

Historical Context and Current Unrest

Iran has witnessed recurring protests since its Islamic Republic was established in 1979, with recent unrest driven by economic woes. The current protests have been met with allegations of security forces using live ammunition, further straining Khamenei’s grip on power. The Supreme Leader’s frailty and paranoia have been exacerbated by these challenges, prompting a careful mapping of escape routes and asset management.

International intelligence reports suggest that the unrest, if not contained, could lead to significant defections within Iran’s elite security forces, posing a substantial risk to the regime’s stability.

Implications for Iran and the Region

The potential flight of Khamenei and his inner circle signals a profound vulnerability within Iran’s leadership. Should this plan be enacted, it could mirror the Syrian regime’s collapse, leading to a power vacuum and increased instability in the region. The flight of assets worth $95 billion could further cripple Iran’s already struggling economy, with broader implications for global energy markets.

In the long run, this scenario could weaken Iran’s influence over its regional allies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, while strengthening Russia’s position as a refuge for embattled leaders.