Venezuela Oil Crisis: Trump’s Risky Bet

Oil rigs operating at sunset in a desert landscape.

A new policy threatens the stability of Venezuela’s oil sector, sparking skepticism among industry giants.

Story Highlights

President Trump promises “total safety” to oil companies investing in Venezuela.
U.S. operation captures Nicolás Maduro, paving way for new oil investments.
Major oil firms express skepticism, citing Venezuela as “uninvestable.”
No binding commitments yet despite ambitious U.S. targets.

Trump’s Bold Promise

On January 9, 2026, President Donald Trump met with top oil executives at the White House, urging them to invest heavily in Venezuela’s oil sector. Following a U.S. operation that captured Nicolás Maduro, Trump guaranteed “total safety” and “total security” for operations, promising that companies would directly deal with Washington. This approach is designed to circumvent Venezuelan state authority, aiming for at least $100 billion in investments to rejuvenate the oil sector.

Despite these assurances, executives from leading oil companies, including ExxonMobil, expressed significant skepticism. They cited Venezuela’s unstable legal and political environment, deeming it “uninvestable” under current conditions. The history of asset expropriations and legal disputes further deters large-scale financial commitments. Instead of instant investments, companies are considering minimal steps, like sending technical teams or modestly increasing production.

Skepticism Among Oil Executives

The oil industry remains cautious, highlighting a gap between Trump’s promises and the industry’s risk assessments. Executives demand concrete security guarantees and long-term political stability before committing to substantial investments. Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, emphasized the need for significant legal and commercial changes, recalling past asset seizures in Venezuela.

Chevron, the only U.S. company currently operating in Venezuela, is considering incremental production increases. However, the sweeping investments President Trump envisions remain unlikely without clear and durable legal frameworks. This cautious stance underscores the industry’s insistence on credible guarantees over political rhetoric.

U.S. Strategy and Industry Reluctance

President Trump’s approach links military intervention with commercial oil interests, promising economic gains for the U.S. while aiding Venezuelan reconstruction. By controlling which companies can operate in Venezuela, the U.S. aims to lower domestic fuel prices and secure geopolitical leverage. However, the lack of binding commitments from oil majors highlights the tension between Washington’s ambitions and corporate risk standards.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright has stated the U.S. plans to control Venezuela’s oil industry indefinitely, aiming to change the behavior of the Venezuelan government. Despite these assertions, the interim Venezuelan leadership, under Delcy Rodríguez, insists they remain in charge, signaling potential future tensions over sovereignty and revenue distribution.