Midterm Mood Swings Against Democrats

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A new CBS News/CNN poll shows Republicans with a rare favorability edge, signaling a real shift in public mood toward the GOP just months before the 2026 midterm elections.

Story Snapshot

Republicans hold a net +5 favorability rating in new CBS News/CNN polling, a sharp break from past midterm cycles.
CNN analyst Harry Enten says Democrats are “running behind their previous benchmarks” while Republicans are “ahead by 5 points.”
Separate CNN polling shows Democratic Party favorability stuck at historic lows, even as their voters show more midterm enthusiasm.
Issue polling finds Americans increasingly trust Republicans over Democrats on key foreign policy and security questions.

Republicans Score Rare Favorability Lead Heading Into 2026

New data from a joint CBS News and Cable News Network poll shows Republicans entering the 2026 midterm season with a net +5 favorability rating, a result that surprised even left-leaning media analysts. Cable News Network senior data analyst Harry Enten told viewers the numbers mark the first time in recent cycles that the president’s party – now led by President Trump – heads into midterms with a positive favorability balance. He stressed that “Republicans actually AHEAD by 5 points” while “Democrats are running BEHIND their previous benchmarks.”

Past midterms usually punished the party in the White House, but this polling hints that many voters now see Republicans as the steadier choice after years of chaos on the border, inflation, and culture battles under Democrats. Enten compared the new figures to 2006 and 2018, when Democrats enjoyed big favorability cushions while attacking Republican presidents. In those cycles, Democrats held double-digit favorability leads and rode them to sweeping House gains. The current data flips that script, with Republicans now the ones holding the image edge, even as media commentary still warns of a possible “blue wave.”

Democrats Struggle With Historic Image Problems

While Republicans have eked out a slight favorability lead, Democrats face deep image problems that could undercut their high voter enthusiasm. A Cable News Network segment this cycle highlighted that only about 28 to 29 percent of Americans hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party, the lowest mark in the network’s polling history going back to the early 1990s. Analysts noted this collapse in goodwill came after years of “woke” social fights, spending surges, and a perception that Democrats focus more on protecting their own power than on lowering costs for families or defending constitutional rights.

A separate Cable News Network survey found Democrats far more “energized” than Republicans about voting next year, with more than seven in ten Democratic-aligned voters saying they are extremely motivated to turn out. But the same poll reported that the Democratic Party’s favorability stands at a record low, raising doubts about whether energy can overcome negative brand views. Analysts warned that enthusiasm from a narrow base does not erase broader public frustration with high prices, unstable foreign policy, and efforts to expand federal control over schools, energy, and speech. For many swing voters, the question has become which party they dislike less, and Democrats are losing ground in that battle.

Issue Polls Show Growing Trust in Republicans on Security and Leadership

Beyond simple party favorability, issue polling suggests Americans are increasingly willing to trust Republicans with hard decisions on national security and foreign policy. Coverage of recent surveys on the Iran conflict showed Republicans gaining a narrow but clear edge over Democrats on which party is more trusted to handle the situation. Harry Enten explained that one poll from a business news outlet put Republicans up by two points on Iran policy, and a CBS News survey taken days later found the exact same two-point advantage, signaling a consistent shift rather than a one-off fluke.

Enten told viewers that when the two Iran polls are viewed together, “you can see that the American people, simply put, are not buying what Democrats are selling” on the conflict. Even with President Trump’s approval on the specific issue described as mixed, Republicans and Trump were still more trusted than Democrats. A previous Washington Post poll had Democrats slightly ahead on the same question, but later surveys showed the numbers flipping over time as the war dragged on. That pattern hints that when crises stretch out, voters may look to Republicans for stronger, clearer leadership, especially after years in which Democratic leaders struggled to balance globalism and domestic security.

Short-Term Poll Bounces Versus Deeper Momentum

This latest wave of polling fits a familiar pattern in American politics where short-term movement in survey numbers turns into a broader story about momentum. Past cycles saw similar “bounce” coverage after high-profile events. During the 2016 Republican National Convention, for example, a Cable News Network poll reported that Donald Trump gained a six-point convention bounce and moved into a three-point national lead over Hillary Clinton, backed heavily by working-class independent voters. Another network found Trump and Clinton essentially tied, showing how high-salience events can quickly reshape the narrative while the race itself stays close.

Instant reaction polls around major presidential speeches have also painted a picture of strong public response to Republican themes, even when the media pushed back. After one of President Trump’s early addresses to Congress, a CBS News poll found that 76 percent of viewers approved of his remarks, and a Cable News Network survey reported that roughly two-thirds had a favorable impression. Later State of the Union polling showed about three-quarters of viewers approving Trump’s speech, with majorities agreeing with him on border security and seeing a real crisis on the southern border. These episodes show that when voters hear a clear message on security, sovereignty, and economic relief, they often respond positively – a trend now reflected in the broader favorability edge for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms.